Since August 6, 2024, we have witnessed the Ukrainian army, which seemed defeated in previous months, launching a major attack on Russian territory. This counteroffensive has taken everyone by surprise, from Russia to the West, including Ukraine itself.
Armed incursions from Ukraine had already occurred in previous months, but none had reached such magnitude. Generally, after a few days, the troops would withdraw, and the symbol of the unshakable Goliath would crumble. It is true that in recent months, drone attacks penetrating deeper into Russian territory have brought the reality of the war to the Russian population. But this time, everything is different.
Indeed, whereas previously the troops entering Russian territory were soldiers claiming to be of Russian origin, this time over a thousand Ukrainian soldiers led the assault in the early hours, supported by armored vehicles and anti-aircraft equipment. The resources deployed are greater, and the tactics have also changed. Whereas previous incursions had not aimed to establish a front line beyond Ukraine's territorial borders, this time the objective is to "bring the war onto Russian territory." ". It is all the more symbolic that Russia was caught by surprise and that the Ukrainian troops are advancing with very little resistance. The Ukrainian army, reinforced by nearly ten thousand men, demonstrates its capability to carry out such an incursion and establish a significant bridgehead. The invasion of the Kursk Oblast could ultimately benefit Kyiv in the event of major peace negotiations. Indeed, if an entire oblast like Kursk falls into Ukrainian hands, Ukraine would again be in a position of strength and could propose a territorial exchange agreement: Kursk for Crimea, the Donbas, or Zaporizhzhia.
Propaganda images from both sides are waging another battle online, but while some Russian videos and information are outdated, featuring previous combats, the Ukrainians are publishing highly current content. In this propaganda war aimed at reassuring both the public and the soldiers, Ukraine seems to be prevailing. Indeed, images of Russian soldiers surrendering to the new invader are circulating widely on social media. There are pictures of Kadyrov's troops sitting with their hands bound, and young Russian conscripts kneeling with blindfolded eyes, making Kyiv's narrative a reality: a Russian prisoner means one more Ukrainian can return home.
On the other side, the Kremlin faces a dilemma. The Ukrainian troops entering its territory like a knife through butter have revealed the strategic weakness of Goliath, who did not anticipate that Ukrainian forces struggling in Donbas or Kharkiv would have the resources for such an incursion. This represents a failure for Vladimir Putin, who now must declare a state of emergency in the oblast to align with his rhetoric on the Ukrainian conflict.
But this incursion into Russian territory is highly symbolic. Indeed, although similar incursions have occurred in the past, mostly further east in the Belgorod region, this one revives many historical memories.
Between July 5 and August 23, 1943, Nazi Germany made one last desperate effort to halt the Soviet juggernaut after defeats at Moscow and Stalingrad. This battle, known as the largest tank battle in history, took place over a front of more than 270 kilometers. The Soviet giant deployed over two million men against 900,000 German soldiers. The Third Reich's army lost, and this battle would later be declared the one that ultimately caused the collapse of the German house of cards.
Furthermore, this is the first time since World War II that Russian territory has experienced such an invasion. For Vladimir Putin, who boasted of restoring the power of Greater Russia, this represents another failure.
But what Kyiv has succeeded in making the Western world understand is Russia's military weakness. Clearly, Kyiv is aware that it is waging a war against a colossus, but it is revealing the colossus's feet of clay. In this invasion, it demonstrates that Russia must redeploy part of its front from Ukraine to defend its own country. Furthermore, it proves that nuclear intimidation is merely a threat and that Russia has not used it, despite this new "red line" being crossed in the conflict.
It is possible that this operation could appeal to the Western countries and renew hope for a resolution to the war other than a Ukrainian collapse. Hypothetically, a disengagement of Russian forces from the Ukrainian front could allow for a major counteroffensive in the region. It will be interesting to follow the unfolding events.
Louis Sandro Zarandia
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