The French in Switzerland were very slow to turn out to vote on Sunday, with a turnout rate of 24.43%. However, at the end of the month, the future of France and Europe will once again be at stake. Will this motivate them more? Indeed, on Sunday, June 9, 2024, a political hurricane swept across Europe. Following the publication of the European election results, the party positioned on the far right National Rally achieved an exceptional score of over 30%. This result surpasses by more than double the votes of its nearest competitor, Valérie Hayer, a member of the presidential party Renaissance. President Emmanuel Macron faced a democratic reality: the dissolution of the National Assembly. An analysis of the political earthquake of the decade.
Dissolution of the National Assembly: a choice or a constraint?
Le Président de la République française n’avait d’autre choix que de dissoudre une Assemblée, qui depuis quelques semaines déjà paraissait très peu démocratique. En effet, les partis d’opposition, susnommé le Rassemblement National, demandaient à de nouvelles élections. Le peuple français n’était plus correctement représenté selon les sondages qui donnaient le RN gagnant des élections.
He faced criticism even within his own party, particularly regarding the risk of dissolution, especially with certain candidates wanting to run again in 2027, and the left wing of his party being unhappy about the immigration law. This dissolution allowed him to compel his supporters to unite and silence any dissent or accusations against his policies.
Additionally, some observers anticipated that motions of censure would arise in the fall, particularly regarding the budget, prompting the President to dissolve the Assembly. Today, Emmanuel Macron has gained the upper hand by catching political parties off guard, leaving them with barely three weeks to organize.
While many politicians from all sides have condemned this sudden action by the President, calling it unthoughtful or a launchpad for the RN's rise to power, we must instead take our hats off to him. It is a political maneuver executed brilliantly. Had the dissolution not occurred, criticism against his regime would have been easy, along with labels of undemocracy or nicknames such as Jupiter.
Today, he hopes to stir things up so that traditional parties step forward and block the far right. This has been successful. In less than 72 hours, left-wing parties managed to unite under the banner of Popular Front. We will return to this later.
What would happen if the RN gained a majority?
If the RN were to gain a majority in parliament, they would be able to present a party prime minister, none other than Jordan Bardella. He would then need to leave his position in the European Parliament, which could potentially weaken the National Rally within the assembly. A more audacious gamble by the President would be to highlight the RN's inability to accomplish anything constructive during the next two years of co-presidency. It remains to be seen what the electoral repercussions could be.
This political earthquake, as we called it at the beginning of the article, is so significant that all of Europe feels the tremors. Indeed, if France falls into the hands of the eurosceptic far right, major questions arise about the future of its ideological survival.
On social media, the favorite playground of the young electorate and a space for populist appeal,completely bipolar world confronts each other. On one side, Jordan Bardella has captivated with his personality, looks, and charisma. Various edits portray him as charismatic during meetings, interviews, or televised debates. On the other side, activists from La France Insoumise (LFI), the other extreme of the French political spectrum, accuse anyone who disagrees with them of "fascist".
How is Jordan Bardella's team managing this campaign?
On Jordan Bardella's side, a large community shares his videos, talks about him, and campaigns for him. It's simple: once you’ve watched and liked a video of Jordan Bardella, your news feed will be trapped in an echo chamber for days. The same goes for videos from LFI activists. This media exposure to a younger generation explains the high voting rates for extremist parties in this demographic—nearly 30% of 18-35 year-olds voted for Jordan Bardella, 20% for LFI, compared to 10% for Raphaël Glucksmann and barely 5% for Valérie Hayer. Social media has gradually succeeded in normalizing the extremes.
This painted landscape obscures who the RN is and what its ideologies are. It is true that part of its electorate voted for its good looks more than for its program. Indeed, part of this electorate is convinced by its fear-inducing rhetoric, touched by words that resonate with the people, and alarmed by the apocalyptic descriptions of other these immigrants who steal their jobs and social aid. In addition to his good looks, they have forgotten the roots of the RN.
And what about the Left in all of this?
You cannot reduce the population that voted in favor of Jordan Bardella to simple racists, uneducated people, or rural inhabitants. Some of the voters cast their ballots against a system that has ignored them for years. They voted against a left-wing that no longer represents them. Against a divided left that seems to care only about niche issues reserved for a wealthy and urban population.
Since it is true, regardless of what is said, that the French left has a role to play in the political tragedy unfolding in the country. A left that has been divided for years, struggling to gather crowds, finding it difficult to form alliances, and consumed by a quest for power, while abandoning the very principle of politics: to represent its electorate, to represent the people.
An internal struggle became evident with the announcement of the Assembly's dissolution, where instead of uniting under a common banner against the National Rally, an anti-Raphaël Glucksmann crusade was successfully launched. The way LFI treats the PS, despite the latter being ahead by 5 points in the elections, indicates that the left is not ready to ally. The Popular Front risks becoming a second NUPES, which will dissolve as quickly as it was formed once the elections are over.
An interesting critique of LFI is that it acts as if it had received more than 10% of the votes, which is not the case. This behavior frustrates part of the electorate, similar to how environmental activists irritated the public with their soup-throwing protests. While activism may convince some voters today, it conversely repels a significant portion of them.
The French left has a role to play through its inaction on popular issues. Historically, the left defended workers and railway workers, but it has abandoned these struggles in favor of equally noble causes that resonate less in rural and poorer areas of France.
The breeding ground of populism.
The ground becomes fertile when a population feels neglected by its politicians, and the fear card is played. The RN then demonstrates through deceptive rhetoric that everything is the fault of theotherthe foreigner, whom they do not associate with, but who "steals" their jobs, benefits, and taxes. Populism arises in the wake of the retreat of traditional parties.
Today, in an increasingly polarized world, it is important to remind ourselves of certain things. No, the people who voted for far-right parties are not all stupidor fools. It's a democratic vote, and everyone has the right to their ideals. This is the foundation of the French system. Of course, on the other hand, speeches of hatred and apologies for dark times in the continent have no place in the public sphere, let alone in parliaments.
It is not a shame for France. But it is a shame for Europe and for the other parties in the political landscape. It is an admission of their defeat, especially as the rise of the RN has been felt for two terms. It reveals a disconnect between political technocracy and the French people.
It is not a shame for France. But it is a shame for Europe and for the other parties in the political landscape. It is an admission of their defeat, especially as the rise of the RN has been felt for two terms. It reveals a disconnect between political technocracy and the French people.
Personalities who do not fully align with their views contribute to the polarization of the debate. Repeated attacks on the head of the PS list, as well as the binary framing of discussions, are just as dangerous as populism.
The Ukrainian conflict, largely forgotten in favor of Gaza?
Through the attacks and disinformation directed at Raphaël Glucksmann regarding his late positioning on the plight of Palestinians, a hierarchy of conflicts is being established, pitting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian conflict against that of the Gaza conflict. This hierarchy is very dangerous, as it plays into Russia's hands. Let us not forget that the future of European security is also at stake on the doorstep of Europe, just across the Polish border.
The question today is to reflect on the future of Europe and its identity. It is not about which conflict is more just or not, but a pragmatic question of what future we want for Europe and France.
The barrier against the far right is not just a question, but a moral duty; however, the hatred it generates is not moral. Today, an alliance must form, and the French must prevent the rise of the brown plague to power. But tomorrow, an internal audit is necessary, and we must ask ourselves what the purpose of a traditional party is and what its mission should be. We need to move beyond this era dedicated to personal glory and political egocentrism, focusing instead on the real needs of the people, without neglecting other important struggles.
A busy agenda, but one that will be essential for the future of Europe.
But such success must involve the maximum participation of the French electorate, both in France and abroad. Once again, let’s not forget that the convinced vote. Yet anyone can make a difference, even from Switzerland.
Louis Sandro Zarandia
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